| 內容簡介 | "By this time, such significance tests had become the mainstay of statistical data analysis in the biological and social sciences - a status that they still retain. However, it was apparent from the outset that there are conceptual problems associated with such tests. Firstly, the test does not address precisely the question that the researcher most wants to answer. The researcher is not primarily interested in the probability of their data set - in a sense its probability is irrelevant, as it is an event that has actually happened. What they really want to know is the probability of the hypothesis that the experiment was designed to test. This is the problem of 'inverse' or 'Bayesian' probability, the probability of things that are not - and cannot be - observed. Secondly, although the probability that a single experiment will give a significant result by coincidence is low, if more tests are conducted, the probability that at least one of them will do so increases"-- |